Our "Q2 Earnings Check-In" showed that AI infrastructure stocks accounted for nearly one-third of S&P 500 earnings growth. That share is expected to increase to more than half for the remainder of 2026 and to 64% in 2027.
From a level perspective, AI infrastructure stocks now represent 42% of the S&P 500's market capitalization and 38% of consensus 2026 EPS.
At the start of 2026, the consensus forecast for hyperscaler CapEx was $546 billion. That figure has since been raised to $789 billion, implying 90%+ year-over-year growth from 2025. CapEx is expected to surpass $1 trillion in both 2027 and 2028. For context, U.S. nominal GDP growth totaled $1.47 trillion in 2025, highlighting the extraordinary scale of the AI infrastructure buildout.
These investments are passing through the economy and beginning to show up in GDP. From 2025 through the first quarter of 2026, AI-related CapEx made a meaningful contribution to quarterly real GDP growth, adding nearly one percentage point each quarter.
Net exports also became more negative as imports rose sharply, driven by AI-related capital goods, including telecom equipment, semiconductors and related devices, and industrial equipment. The pattern continued in the second quarter of 2026.
