For internal reference only. Do not distribute.
Stocks went through a month of policy-induced volatility. Interestingly, the NASDAQ emerged unscathed. While tariffs and trade wars tend to hurt tech more - given its highest international exposure among all sectors - the group’s high gross margins helped cushion the blow.
Our live signals remain effective. Momentum is back. No changes to the IM Committee's S&S guidance.
Performance
Value outperformed Growth; Larger outperformed Smaller.
Trailing 1-year, BRNY beat the S&P 1500 by 4.5%; 130-30 beat by 5.7%. 130-30 also gained 2.4% in April and has the lowest volatility and highest return YTD among all SSRs. SRSMID beat SPSM (SP 600) by 13% and IWM (R2K) by 10% in the trailing one-year period.
Signals
Eyesores slightly underperformed; Momentum came back; Extreme 1-month drawdown signal did not work in April, likely due to the month's heightened volatility.
All live signals, Score/ADNA/Combo, outperformed the 1500 Eq Weight Index by 2%+ in April. Combo stabilizes the component signals and continues to provide great separations.
Size and Style
The IM Committee made NO CHANGE in its guidance during the month. Meeting summary and recording can be found here: https://burney.sharepoint.com/sites/Research/SitePages/IM%20Committee.aspx
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Long term cycle charts
March was pro-Large and pro-Value. Interactive charts can be found on Burney Web . (Credit: Marty Walsh)
Technical signals
Trends right now are anti-Small and anti-Value.
Sector
Sectors were broadly down, but high-margin sectors like ConDi and Tech held up better. Energy was crushed by growth concerns and geopolitical risks.
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The following tables provide reference to determine the sector weights. The 1st panel is a size and style guidance-neutral sector breakdown of the S&P 1500 constituents by market cap, and the 2nd panel is the earnings contributions (official estimates from the S&P) for each S&P 500 sector.
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Earnings and Valuations
Earnings continue to be revised down, month after month.
PE ratios are now lower than in 2023 for all market cap groups.
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The Master Portfolios will be updated after the composites are built.
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