Macro Conditions at a Glance

There were no significant data changes in November, except for a substantial upward revision in growth - a positive sign for stocks.The Goldilocks period carries on.

Lagging Indicators

The Unemployment Rate is now stabilizing at 4.1%.

The Sahm Rule indicator was triggered in July after crossing 0.53.

The number of job openings is now 7.4 mil, the lowest level since January 2021.

Real GDP Growth continues to be robust. Q1 GDP was revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%.

2024Q2: 3.0%
2024Q3: 2.8%

2024Q4: 3.2% (est.)

Service Inflation continues to come down gradually.

Corporate profit and margin rebounded, in a positive sign for stocks.

Leading Indicators

Term Spread - the yield curve is rapidly dis-inverting at 3m/10yr.

Initial Claims slightly declined. Continued Claims were flat.

Housing starts are trending downward.

Average Weekly Hours declined to a level lower than that of the pre-Covid era.

Retail Sales indicates that consumers are still-resilient.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is at a relative low level.

The Manufacturing PMI continues to contract.
The Services PMI continues to expand.

Volatility retreated post-election. Stocks pushed to new highs.

Investor Sentiment is still fairly bullish.

Fed Rate Path